Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said that “by withdrawing protectionist measures, improving market access, avoiding policies which distort competition and striving to agree reforms to global trade rules, governments can boost trade and seize the opportunities that it offers for everyone.”

Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade will pick up only slightly over the next two years, rising from 2.8% in 2014 to 3.3% in 2015 and eventually to 4.0% in 2016, WTO economists announced today. 

Trade expansion will therefore remain well below the annual average of 5.1% posted since 1990.

The modest gains in 2014, marked the third consecutive year in which trade grew less than 3%. Trade growth averaged just 2.4% between 2012 and 2014, the slowest rate on record for a three year period when trade was expanding (i.e. excluding years like 1975 and 2009 when world trade actually declined).

Key points from the full report, which can be found at www.wto.org, are as follows:
 

• World merchandise trade is forecast to grow 3.3% in 2015 in volume terms as output picks up slightly in both developed and developing countries.
• Trade growth should accelerate to 4.0% in 2016, still below the average of 5.1% since 1990, and well below the pre-crisis average of 6.0%. 
• Trade volume growth has been very slow in recent years, measuring 2.8% in 2014 and averaging 2.4% over the last three years.
• Exports of developing countries grew faster than those of developed countries in 2014, 3.3% vs. 2.2%.
• Meanwhile, imports of developing countries grew more slowly, 2.0% compared with 3.2%.
• The 50% drop in oil prices since July should boost incomes and imports in energy intensive economies (including developed countries and China) while reducing them in fuel exporters.
• Numerous downside risks to the forecast exist including geopolitical tensions, divergent monetary policies, exchange rate fluctuations and slower growth in emerging economies.