"Mexico will be gone from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA),” Goncalves predicted during a session at the 2024 Global Steel Dynamics Forum. Hosted by the Association for Iron & Steel Technology and World Steel Dynamics, the conference is taking place in New York City. 
 
The USMCA is up for review in July 2026, a time when any of the three countries can opt not to renew the trade pact. But 2024 is a pivotal year for that review given presidential elections in both the U.S. and Mexico.

“Mexico has not shown any ability to comply (with the accord),” Goncalves said. In terms of steel trade, he described Mexico as “the transshipment capital of the world.”
 
The Cliffs CEO quipped that the “USMCA would become just USCA.”
 
However, some disagreed with Goncalves' prediction. 
 
Steel Dynamics Inc. chief executive officer Mark Millett acknowledged some current trade “friction” between the U.S. and Mexico but said he doesn’t see the country leaving the agreement.  
 
"(Mexico) is abusing their position, but given the amount of cross-border trade, these things tend to work themselves out," Millett said.
 

• This article is courtesy of World Steel Dynamics' USA Steel Dynamics information service.