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worldsteel Provides 2010 Short Range Outlook for Steel
10/14/2009 - The World Steel Association is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104 million tonnes in 2009.
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104 million tonnes in 2009. The decrease will follow a decline of -1.4% in 2008.
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The Short Range Outlook is developed by worldsteel’s Committee on Economic Studies, which meets twice a year. Committee membership comprises chief economists from more than 40 of the worldsteel member companies.
The forecast projections consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the marketplace from the domestic steel producers as well as from importers. The Committee considers country and regional demand estimates to compile their global overview on apparent steel use.
Real steel use, in contrast to apparent steel use, takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
The Committee presents its Short Range Outlook to the worldsteel Board for their final review before publication.
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worldsteel is also forecasting that global steel demand in 2010 will grow by 9.2% to 1,206 million tonnes, back in line with the level of 2008, based in part on signs of global recovery that began in the second half of 2009.
"The global recovery is stronger than we predicted in April,” commented Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee. “According to our current forecast, China will rebound 19% in 2009 and 5% in 2010. Emerging economies will slow down 17% in 2009, to grow 12% in 2010. Apparent steel use in developed economies, that contracted 34% in 2009, will rebound 15% in 2010. Therefore, worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will return to growth in 2010, but this is expected to be moderate. As before the financial crisis, the emerging economies, especially China, will be the critical factor in driving world steel demand in the near future.
“While the state of the global economy has improved, uncertainties and concerns regarding the resilience of the recovery still remain with the possibility of any premature reduction in government stimulus actions,” concluded Novegil. “This uncertainty particularly exists for the Chinese economy in 2010, whose fast recovery in 2009 was largely enabled by such strong government stimulus policies".
Apparent steel use in Asia is expected to reach 745.5 million tonnes in 2009, reflecting a 5.1% increase over 2008. Growth in Asia is fueled in large part by strong growth in China’s apparent steel use, which is expected to reach 526 million tonnes in 2009, an 18.8% increase over 2008. In 2009, China is expected to account for 47.7% of world steel apparent use. Excluding China, potential world steel demand would have fallen by -24.4%.
Apparent steel use in India, which also remained relatively resilient to the global crisis, is expected to grow by 8.9% in 2009 and by 12.1% in 2010. Apparent steel use in Japan is expected to decline by -31.3%, then recover by 15.8% in 2010 to reach 61 million tonnes.
Apparent steel use in the EU-27 economies, which were also severely affected by the crisis, is expected to fall by -32.6% in 2009 to 122 million tonnes. In 2010, apparent steel use in the EU-27 is expected to grow by 12.4%.
Apparent steel use in Other Europe is expected to reach 20.8 million tonnes in 2009, reflecting a decrease of -32.6% vs. 2008. The region’s apparent steel use is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2010. In the CIS region, apparent steel use is expected to contract by -30.8% in 2009 then grow by only 8.2% in 2010.
Following an expected -35.8% decline in apparent steel use in 2009, the NAFTA region is expected to show a positive 17.1% growth in 2010. Apparent steel demand in the U.S. is expected to fall by -38.7% to 60 million tonnes in 2009, then recover to 72 million tonnes in 2010 with a growth rate of 18.8%.
For both NAFTA and EU-27, the level of apparent steel use that is expected in 2010 amounts to what was achieved back in 1991, demonstrating the severity of the impact of the crisis on the steel industry.
In Central and South America, apparent steel use is expected to fall by -24.4% in 2009, then grow by 9.7% in 2010. In Africa, apparent steel use is expected to increase by 0.4% in 2009 and by 11.4% in 2010, while in the Middle East, apparent steel use is expected to fall by -9.8% in 2009 then increase by 10.6% in 2010.
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Short range outlook for apparent steel use
in millions of tonnes |
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Regions
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2008
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2009
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2010
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07/08
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08/09
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09/10
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EU (27)
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181.283
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122.255
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137.425
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-8.2%
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-32.6%
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+12.4%
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Other Europe
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25.316
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20.813
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23.817
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-10.8%
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-17.8%
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+14.4%
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CIS
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48.946
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33.852
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36.638
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-13.5%
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-30.8%
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+8.2%
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NAFTA
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128.955
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82.771
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96.932
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-8.2%
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-35.8%
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+17.1%
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Central & S. America
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44.277
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33.455
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36.685
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+6.5%
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-24.4%
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+9.7%
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Africa
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26.170
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26.285
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29.277
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+11.4%
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0.4%
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+11.4%
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Middle East
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43.055
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38.834
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42.946
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+6.9%
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-9.8%
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+10.6%
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Asia and Oceania
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709.010
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745.471
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801.866
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+1.8%
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+5.1%
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+7.6%
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World
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1,207.013
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1,103.735
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1,205.585
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-1.4%
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-8.6%
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+9.2%
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BRIC
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553.772
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625.853
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662.679
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+1.6%
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+13.0%
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+5.9%
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World
(excl. BRIC) |
653.241
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477.882
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542.906
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-3.8%
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-26.8%
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+13.6%
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World
(excl. China ) |
764.049
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577.493
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653.032
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-3.7%
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-24.4%
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+13.1%
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The World Steel Association (worldsteel), one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world, represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 19 of the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. worldsteel members produce around 85% of the world's steel.
