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World Steel Association Provides 2009 Short Range Outlook for Steel
05/04/2009 - The World Steel Association is forecasting that worldwide apparent steel use is expected to decline by -14.9% to 1,018.6 million tonnes in 2009.
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that worldwide apparent steel use is expected to decline by -14.9% to 1,018.6 million tonnes in 2009. The nearly 15% decrease follows a 1.4% (1,197 million tonne) decline in 2008.
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The Short Range Outlook is provided by the worldsteel Committee on Economic Studies, which meets twice a year.
Committee membership comprises chief economists from more than 40 of the worldsteel member companies.
The forecast projections consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the marketplace from domestic steel producers as well as from importers. The Committee considers country and regional demand estimates in order to compile its global overview on apparent steel use.
Real steel use, in contrast, takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
The Committee presents it s Short Range Outlook to the worldsteel Board for final review before publication. The Board will review the next Short Range Outlook (for 2010) at its October 2009 Board Meeting in Beijing.
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"The progression of the U.S. financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronized global decline of steel demand in late 2008,” said Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee, commenting on the forecast. “For most of the world, this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009.
“Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilization of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence,” continued Novegil. “Steel remains a vital core material for today and tomorrow's world and the industry is well positioned to respond to changing market conditions.”
Within the NAFTA region, the U.S. is expected to show the largest decline in steel demand in the post-war period, with apparent steel use expected to fall by -36.6% in 2009.
Outside NAFTA, Europe will be the most affected region in 2009, with apparent steel use in the EU 27, Other Europe, and CIS regions expected to decline by more than 25% in 2009.
In Asia, Japan’s apparent steel use is expected to fall by 20.4% in 2009, as influenced by a sharp decline in the exports of its steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery.
Also in Asia, China is expected to witness negative growth of -5% in apparent steel use in 2009 as the ongoing global economic crisis hits China’s exports in addition to the effects of a slowing domestic economy. The last time that China’s apparent steel use recorded negative growth was in 1995 when apparent steel use fell by 17.2% following the real estate bubble burst. Apparent steel use for the world excluding China is expected to decline by -20.4% in 2009.
Other emerging economies are also being affected by the economic crisis, but to a lesser degree. India is projected to have a positive growth of 2% for apparent steel use in 2009 and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries as a whole are forecasted to contract by only -5.9%. Projected apparent steel use for the world, excluding BRIC, is down -22.3% in 2009.
The World Steel Association (worldsteel), one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world, represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 18 of the world's 20 largest steel companies) as well as national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. worldsteel members produce around 85% of the world's steel.
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Short range outlook for apparent steel use
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(2008-2009) in millions of tonnes
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Regions
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2008
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08 vs. 07
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2009
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09 vs. 08
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EU (27)
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181.5
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-8.4%
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129.2
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-28.8%
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Other Europe
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28.9
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-8.3%
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21.5
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-25.7%
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CIS
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50.0
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-11.8%
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38.4
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-23.1%
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NAFTA
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129.7
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-8.2%
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88.0
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-32.2%
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Central and S. America
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43.6
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5.7%
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37.6
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-13.9%
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Africa
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25.3
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0.2%
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25.2
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-0.5%
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Middle East
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42.8
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-0.9%
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39.0
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-8.9%
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Asia and Oceania
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693.8
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2.0%
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637.4
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-8.1%
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World
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1197.4
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-1.4%
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1018.6
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-14.9%
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BRIC
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537.6
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2.3%
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505.9
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-5.9%
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World (excl. BRIC)
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659.8
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-4.2%
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512.7
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-22.3%
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World (excl. China)
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771.8
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-3.6%
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614.2
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-20.4%
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