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IISI Provides Short Range Outlook for Steel Industry
04/16/2008 - In its just-released short-range outlook, the International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts that 2008 will still be another strong year for the steel industry, with apparent steel use projected to rise 6.7%, to 1282 million tonnes in 2008.
In its just-released short-range outlook, the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has forecasted that 2008 will still be another strong year for the steel industry. Apparent steel use has been projected to rise 6.7% from 1202 million tonnes in 2007 to 1282 million tonnes in 2008. New projections for 2009 suggest a global growth rate of 6.3%.
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Projections forecast by IISI consider both real and apparent steel use.
Apparent steel use reflects deliveries of steel to the marketplace from steel producers as well as from importers.
This differs from real steel use, which takes into account steel delivered to or drawn from inventories.
IISI will issue its Medium Term Forecast in July 2008.
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The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries will again lead growth, with an expected increase of 11.1% for 2008 and 10.3% for 2009, according to the IISI report. However, as steel demand growth increases in other emerging countries, the large gap in growth rate—which has come to be expected in recent times—between BRIC countries and the rest of the world (ROW) will narrow.
According to the report, China’s apparent steel use is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2008 and 10.0% in 2009, accounting for 35% of the world total in 2008. This is expected to reach 36.7% of world total by 2009. For India, forecasts for apparent steel use point to an increase of 8.9% in 2008 and 12.1% in 2009.
The report forecasted growth in the Russian market to remain strong at 10.2% for 2008 and 11.2% for 2009, led mainly by the energy and construction sectors. Apparent steel use in Brazil is expected to increase by 10.3% for 2008 and 8.9% for 2009, reflecting strong growth in the automotive, construction and engineering sectors.
In the EU (27), the report predicted growth in steel demand to continue at a more modest pace, following 2007 adjustments in inventory positions, leading to growth of 1.6% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009.
2007 apparent steel use in the NAFTA region is predicted to show negative growth of -9.1% due to the slowing economy, inventory liquidation and decreased imports. 2008 is to show a more stable position despite the weak uncertain economy leading to a positive growth forecast of 1.9% and 1.0% for 2009.
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world. IISI represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 19 of the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes. IISI members produce around 75% of the world's steel (excluding China) and the growing membership in China now accounts for over 20% of Chinese production.
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Short range outlook for apparent steel use
(2007-2009) in millions of tonnes |
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Regions
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2007
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2008
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2009
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06-07
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07-08
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08-09
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EU (27)
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192.2
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195.3
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199.8
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3.4%
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1.6%
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2.3%
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Other Europe
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31.2
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33.1
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35.3
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9.4%
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6.0%
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6.7%
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CIS
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55.5
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60.5
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66.3
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13.7%
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8.9%
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9.6%
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NAFTA
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141.5
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144.2
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145.6
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-9.1%
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1.9%
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1.0%
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Central and South America
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41.0
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44.6
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47.7
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13.7%
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8.9%
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7.0%
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Africa
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25.3
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26.8
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28.4
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8.5%
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5.9%
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5.9%
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Middle East
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44.3
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49.2
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53.6
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12.7%
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11.1%
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9.0%
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Asia and Oceania
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670.6
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728.3
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786.5
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10.0%
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8.6%
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8.0%
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World
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1201.6
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1282.1
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1363.3
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6.6%
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6.7%
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6.3%
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BRIC
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520.9
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578.5
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637.8
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13.1%
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11.1%
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10.3%
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World (excl. NAFTA)
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1060.1
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1137.9
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1217.7
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9.1%
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7.3%
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7.0%
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World (excl. China)
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793.3
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827.0
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862.7
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3.6%
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4.3%
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4.3%
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World (excl. BRIC)
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680.7
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703.5
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725.4
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2.2%
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3.4%
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3.1%
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