In its latest Short-Range Outlook, the association is projecting that global demand will reach nearly 1.74 million metric tons this year, up from 1.71 billion metric tons in 2018. It said that while demand is expected to grow, the rate of growth is slowing. 

“In 2019 and 2020, global steel demand is expected to continue to grow, but growth rates will moderate in tandem with a slowing global economy. Uncertainty over the trade environment and volatility in the financial markets have not yet subsided and could pose downside risks to this forecast,” said Al Remeithi, chairman of the association’s economics committee. 

In the U.S., demand is expected to climb 1.3% to 101.4 million metric tons. U.S. demand in 2018 stood at 100.2 million metric tons, driven by a healthy economy and government policies that energized the market. 

“In 2019, the U.S. growth pattern is expected to slow with the waning effect of fiscal stimulus and a monetary policy normalization. Therefore, both construction and manufacturing growth is expected to moderate. Investment in oil and gas exploration is expected to decelerate as well, while a boost in infrastructure spending is not expected,” the association said. 

Meanwhile, the association is forecasting that Indian steel demand will reach of 102.8 million metric tons this year, edging out the U.S. as the world’s second-biggest market by demand. 

“While the fiscal deficit might weigh on public investment to an extent, the wide range of continuing infrastructure projects is likely to support growth in steel demand above 7% in both 2019 and 2020,” the association said.